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An entire industry of weather bookies — scientists who calculate the likelihood of various natural disasters — had in effect set the odds: New Orleanians had made an art form of ignoring threats far more likely than this; indeed, their carelessness was a big reason they were supposedly more charming than other Americans.

Real online casino ny it was real online casino ny New Orleanians found pleasure even in oblivion. But in their blindness to certain threats, they could not have been more typically American. And virtually no one — not even the weather bookies — fully understood the true odds. But there was an exception: His name was John Seo, he was 39 real online casino ny old and he ran a hedge fund in Westport, Conn.

He puts down his money and will lose it all if some specified bad thing happens within a predetermined number of years: In exchange, the cat-bond seller — an insurance company looking to insure itself against extreme losses — pays the buyer a high senza deposito bonus poker siti of interest. Less interested in money and more interested in ideas than a Wall Street person is meant to be.

He inherited not money but math. At poker deposito bonus senza netbet age of 14, inhis mother fled North Korea on foot, walked through live combat, reached the United States and proceeded to become, reportedly, the first Korean woman ever to earn a Ph.

Two of his three brothers received Ph. John took a physics degree from M. His parents had raised real online casino ny to think, but his thoughts were interrupted once he left Harvard.

His wife was pregnant with their second child, and the health plan at Brandeis University, where he had accepted a job, declared her pregnancy a pre-existing condition. It was almost as if I was taking it as a price signal. His parents, he suspected, would be appalled. They had sacrificed a lot for his academic career. In the late s, if you walked into the Daylight Donuts shop in Dallas, you would have real online casino ny a sweet-natured Korean woman in her early 50s cheerfully serving up honey-glazed crullers: She had abandoned math for motherhood, and then motherhood for doughnuts, after real online casino ny most promising son insisted on attending M.

Whatever frustration she may have felt, she hid, as she did most of her emotions. But when John told her that he was real online casino ny the university for Wall Street, she wept.

But Seo soon turned Wall Street into his own private science lab, and his continued interest in deep questions this web page even his father.

Still, everywhere he goes, he has been drawn to a similar thorny problem: Tail risk, broadly speaking, is whatever financial cataclysm is believed by markets to have a 1 percent chance or less of happening. Real online casino ny the foreign-exchange market, the tail event might be the dollar falling by one-third in a year; in the bond market, it might be interest rates moving 3 percent in six months; in the stock market, it might be casino online senza deposito 30 percent crash.

John Seo is oddly sympathetic to the complaint. He thinks that much of the academic literature about finance is nonsense, for instance. In the mids, when Wall Street first noticed money to be made covering the financial risks associated with hurricanes and earthquakes, it was inevitable that someone would call John Seo to ask him if he could figure out how to make sense of it.

Until then, he had specialized in financial, not natural, disasters. But there was a connection between financial catastrophe and natural catastrophe. Both were extreme, both were improbable and both needed to be insured against. The firm that called him was Lehman Brothers, whose offer enticed Seo to quit his job and spend check this out first year at Lehman learning all he could about the old-fashioned insurance industry.

Right away, he could see the problem with natural catastrophe. An insurance company could function only if it was able to control its exposure to loss. Geico sells auto insurance to more than seven million Americans.

No individual car accident can be foreseen, obviously, but the total number of accidents over a large population is amazingly predictable. The company knows from past http://burg-hohenzollern.info/online-casino-games-kostenlos-spielen-ohne-anmeldung.php what percentage of the drivers it insures will file claims and how much those claims will cost.

The logic of catastrophe is very different: After an earthquake flattens Tokyo, a Japanese earthquake insurer is in deep trouble: If there were a great number of rich cities scattered across the planet that might plausibly be destroyed by an earthquake, the insurer could spread its exposure to the losses by selling earthquake insurance to all of them.

The losses it suffered in Tokyo would be offset by the gains it made from the cities not destroyed by an earthquake. But the financial risk from earthquakes — and hurricanes — is highly concentrated in a few places. Yet insurers continued to cover them, sometimes unenthusiastically, sometimes real online casino ny. Seo wondered, and then found the answer: Several hours earlier, Hurricane Andrew had struck Florida, and more info knew immediately that the event could define her career.

For decades Americans had been lurching toward catastrophe. At the same time, Americans were cramming themselves and their wealth onto the beach.

The insurance industry had been oblivious to the trends and continued to price catastrophic risk just as it always had, by the seat of its real online casino ny. The big insurance companies ran up and down the Gulf Coast selling as many policies as they could. To better judge the potential cost of catastrophe, Clark gathered very long-term historical data on hurricanes. It just seemed like such an obvious thing to do. Then she wrote her paper about it. She projected catastrophic storms from the distant past onto the present-day population and storms from the more recent past onto richer and more populated areas than they had actually hit.

She spoke for 45 minutes but had no sense that she had been heard. But no one asked questions either. People euro casino mobile fortune they had already figured it read more. They were comfortable with their own subjective judgment.

They had been lucky. Clark soon found herself in a role for which she was, on the surface at least, ill suited: One big player in the insurance industry took closer notice of her work and paid her enough to start a business.

Applied Insurance Research, she called it, or A. Clark hired a few scientists and engineers, and she set to work acquiring more and better data and building better models.

But what she really was doing — without quite realizing it — was real online casino ny, waiting for a storm. Hurricane Andrew made landfall at 5 on a Monday morning. By 9 she knew only the path of the storm and its intensity, but the information enabled her to estimate the losses: If builders in South Florida had ignored the building codes and built houses to lower standards, the losses might come in even higher. She faxed real online casino ny numbers to insurers, then walked to Au Bon Pain.

Everything was suddenly more vivid and memorable. She ordered a smoked-turkey and Boursin cheese sandwich on French bread, with lettuce and tomato, and a large Diet Coke. It was a nice sunny day in Boston.

She sat real online casino ny at a small black table, alone. When she returned to the office, her phones were ringing. It took months for the insurers to tote up their losses: Building codes in South Florida had not been strictly enforced. Fifteen and a half billion dollars exceeded all of the insurance premiums ever collected in Dade County. Eleven insurance companies went bust.

If it had gone into Miami, it could have bankrupted the whole industry. Clark had been right: After Hurricane Andrew came a shift in the culture of catastrophe.

In its Bay Area offices, R. Real online casino ny models these companies created differed from peril to peril, but they all had one thing in common: No hurricane has hit the coast of Georgia, for instance, since detailed records have been kept. And so if you relied solely on the past, you would predict that no hurricane ever will hit the Georgia coast. But that makes no sense: To do this, the R.

Real history serves as a guide — it enables pound 5 deposit oyster to see, for instance, that the odds of big hurricanes making landfall north of Cape Hatteras are far below the odds of them striking south of Cape Hatteras.

It allows him to assign different odds to different stretches real online casino ny coastline without making the random distinctions that actual hurricanes have made in the last years. Generate a few hundred thousand hurricanes, and you generate not only dozens of massive hurricanes that hit Georgia but also a few that hit, say, Rhode Island. There were concentrations of wealth in the world that defied the logic of insurance. And most of them were in America.

The more John Seo looked into the insurance industry, the more it seemed to be teetering at the edge of ruin. This had happened once before, inwhen the real online casino ny of Hamburg burned to the ground and bankrupted the entire German insurance betfair deposit methods uk many times over.

Out of the ashes was born a new industry, called reinsurance. The old insurance companies would still sell real online casino ny to the individual residents of Hamburg.

But they would turn around and hand some of the premiums they collected to Cologne Re short for reinsurance in exchange for taking on losses over a certain amount. Cologne Re would protect itself by diversifying at a higher level — by selling catastrophic fire insurance to lots of other towns.


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